Classifying Global Catastrophic Risks by Shahar Avin, Bonnie C. Wintle, Julius Weitzdörfer, Seán S. Ó hÉigeartaigh, William J. Sutherland, Martin J. Rees
This paper provides a conceptual framework for understanding GCR/XRisk as a combination of a critical system failure, that spreads globally, that we fail to mitigate.
Governing Boring Apocalypses by Hin-Lan Yua, Kristan Lauta and Matthijs Maas
This paper attempts to explore the neglected space of existential vulnerabilities and exposures, and attempts to create a more complex model of how to understand existential risk through expanding ERS beyond just studying hazards.
Defence in Depth Against Human Extinction by Owen Cotton-Barrett, Max Daniel and Anders Sandberg
This paper breaks down pathways to existential catastrophe as involving the start of the damage, this damage spreading to a global catastrophe, and this catastrophe killing everyone, and highlights how a defence in depth model could make humanity stronger against these risks.
Assessing climate change contribution to Global Catastrophic Risk by SJ Beard, Lauren Holt, Asaf Tzachor, Luke Kemp, Shahar Avin, Emile Torres, Haydn Belfield
This paper utilises the critical system framework to highlight how climate change risk could cascade through a variety of systems in a self-reinforcing 'global systems death spiral', providing a useful example of a particular approach to ERS.
The Precipice by Toby Ord
This book lays out many key assumptions underpinning much work on XRisk, including many of the methods used for reasoning about them, that treating hazards as separate 'risks' may be analytically and discursively most useful, includes some analysis of when intersecting risks may be most worrying, includes reviews of the available literature and much more
The Precipice Book Review by Seth Baum
This review challenges many of the assumptions in the Precipice, chiefly the reliance on quantification and the neglect of civilisational collapse in the book.
Agents of Doom Media Article by Luke Kemp
This article presents a perspective of existential risk primarily focused on those 'agents of doom' who produce such risk, a perspective that is still rarely explored in existential risk studies.
Feeding everyone if the sun is obscured and industry is disabled by David C. Denkenberger, D. Dorothea Cole, Mohamed Abdelkhaliq, Michael Griswold, Allen B. Hundley, Joshua M. Pearce
This paper takes an approach of focusing on increasing the resilience of a particular critical system (the food system) in response to a particular class of disaster (sunlight blocking events), providing an example of what non-hazard-centric xrisk research could look like
Forecasting Existential Risks by Ezra Karger, Josh Rosenberg, Zachary Jacobs, Molly Hickman, Rose Hadshar, Kayla Gamin, Taylor Smith, Bridget Williams, Tegan McCaslin, Philip E. Tetlock
This report utilises the method of superforecasting to quantify probabilities of existential catastrophe over a wide variety of contributors to existential risk.
Vulnerable World Hypothesis by Nick Bostrom
This paper explores speculative future vulnerabilities to technological development, using an inherently speculative mode of XRisk reasoning to explore the dangers of the 'semi-anarchic default condition'; this uses specific hazards as examples, but is generally focusing on a less hazard-centric approach, rather on broad political solutions to the problem of dangerous technology development in general.
Artificial Canaries: Early Warning Signs for Anticipatory and Democratic Governance of AI by Carla Zoe Cremer and Jess Whittlestone
This paper utilises an expert elicitation method to highlight the dependencies in different factors that may contribute towards transformative AI development, showing how greater understanding of the complexity of AI progress can greatly aid in foresight for anticipatory governance